Google Ads will update its advertising policies to allow ads for Prediction Markets starting on January 21, 2026. This will be allowed in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities.
A prediction market is an online platform where people trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, like elections or sports, with prices reflecting the market's collective forecast of the probability for each outcome. Participants buy "yes" or "no" contracts (e.g., 60 cents for a 60% chance of a candidate winning) and profit if their prediction is correct and the price moves in their favor, creating an incentive for research and accurate forecasting.
Google announced, "Google is updating its advertising policies on January 21, 2026, to permit ads for Prediction Markets (defined as platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events) in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities."
Advertisers must apply for certification through Google to run ads targeting the United States.
Eligibility is limited to entities who meet the following criteria:
- Those authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business must be the listing of Exchange-Listed Event Contracts (e.g., specialized platforms listing economic or sports outcomes); or
- Those authorized as a Brokerage by the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer third-party access to products listed by a DCM that meets the criteria specified above.
The prediction markets help document is over here and explains Google Ads only allows advertisements for these products in the locations listed in the location specifics section below and only if they meet all of the following criteria:
- The advertiser is a licensed Prediction Market provider that holds all applicable local financial, commodity, and/or gaming licenses, including those required as part of Google’s certification process.
- The products and ads comply with all local laws, financial regulations, industry standards and all other Google Ads Policies. Advertisers are expected to do their own research on the local regulations for any location their ads target and comply with these.
- The targeted location is eligible for certification for advertising under this policy.
- The account has received certification and approval from Google to run ads about these products.
What is not allowed are:
- Binary options and fixed-return contracts: Ads promoting binary options or similarly structured derivatives where the customer receives a fixed payout or zero based on the price movement of a financial asset.
- Online Gambling: Markets concerning games of chance or lotteries, or any activity legally defined as gambling within relevant jurisdictions and not permitted as a regulated Prediction Market under local law.
- Informational or educational sites and blogs: Informational or educational sites or blogs that provide signals for the trading of Exchange-Listed Event Contracts.
Here is how you apply to advertise Prediction Markets:
- Check if you’re promoting any products or services that require you to apply to advertise using Google Ads.
- Make sure the locations you’re targeting are eligible under this policy. If your targeted location isn’t on the list of approved targeted locations, the prediction market contracts and related products mentioned above can’t be advertised. Google Ads doesn’t support advertising in non-approved markets at this time.
- If you meet the policy requirements and plan to target only approved locations, you can apply to advertise prediction market products. You’ll need to submit a separate application for each location that you intend to target.
Forum discussion at LinkedIn.
